IntuitionComparison of Physician Intuition and Model Predicted Prognosis in Heart Failure

Heart failure (HF) is a significant medical issue affecting over 26 million people worldwide. The study aims to improve HF management by accurately assessing patient prognosis. Currently, doctors rely on their intuition to estimate survival rates, but predictive models have shown to be more accurate. This Canadian study compares physician intuition and model-predicted survival in ambulatory HF patients. By evaluating which method provides more accurate prognostic estimates, the study can inform the best strategy for patient management, offering greater clinical benefits and improving resource utilization. In this study, adult HF patients from various clinics across Canada will participate. Doctors with different levels of expertise will provide their intuitive estimates of a patient's one-year survival without knowing the model-predicted survival. The study will compare the accuracy of physician-predicted and model-predicted survival to the true one-year survival. It will also assess the impact of physician confidence, expertise, and gender, as well as patient gender, on the accuracy of physician intuition. The study will evaluate the association between physician-estimated survival and resource use, as well as related costs. Participants will be followed for a minimum of one year, and outcomes such as death, urgent heart transplant, and resource utilization will be collected.